Oscar Predictions

83rd Academy Award Presenters,
James Franco & Anne Hathaway

It's Oscar day! It's Oscar day! I've been up since 9am and despite the limited brainpower it took to make a cup of tea, I've thought of little else this morning. To contextualise this excitement; when I was seven years old, I remember watching the awards with my dad. As the faces of five nominees came on screen, I focused on Whoopi Goldberg in those few, long, moments before Denzel Washington opened the envelope bearing the name of the Best Supporting Actress (1990). She wasn't smiling. Her eyes looked dead and her lips were all tight. She looked so sad and I couldn't understand why.

Then joy! Absolute unrestrained, unashamed, graceless joy! Jumping, cuddling, air-punching - framed in sentiment by the Ghost theme song. And I started sobbing. That's the moment I fell in love with the Oscars. Even fifteen years later, as I stood on Hollywood Boulevard transfixed on the Kodak Theatre I remembered Whoopi, the girl from the projects who became a star. I'm aware this posits me as a big old star-gazing, rags-to-riches, romantic, who, having revisited Whoopi's speech for the purpose of this blog, cried again this morning. What can I say? I'm Scottish, a genetic sentimentalist who tends not to mix bagpipes and mascara. 

So, in 12 hours, having rushed home from Glasgow Film Festival's Closing Gala, I'll be perched on the sofa with a glass of wine in my jammies and red lippy (have to make an effort!) as the world's movie gliterati congregate in the Kodak Theatre for the 83rd Academy Awards. Will it be a gloriously British night (the Kings Speech has 12 nominations)? Or will we see a distinct sidestep from the BAFTA Awards with our Americano chums taking centre stage at their own party? Here are my predictions, but first let's have a  whistle-stop retrospective of the last six years.

In 2005, the night belonged to Clint Eastwood et al as Million Dollar Baby reaped glory winning four categories. The following year (2006) revealed a more scattered result; it was the last time Best Picture (Crash) and Best Director (Ang Lee Brokeback Mountain) differed. In 2007 Scorsese's Departed went to town scooping four categories. And 2008 was the year of the Coen as No Country for Old Men took home four statuettes. Last year of course, the Brits bit back with our very own Danny Boyle smashing records with Slumdog Millionaire taking home eight wee golden men. I don't see 2009 repeating itself this evening, I think tonight will be more scattered most notably between The Social Network and The King's Speech. Here's how I think it will all pan out...   

** Best Picture ** 

The Social Network

I'd like to see The King's Speech snatch it but I think The Social Network will come up trumps in light of its importance as a major cultural commentary of our time. Black Swan is visually amazing (I can see it picking up cinematography) but I think it's too superficial for a Best Picture win. And Toy Story 3 - whit!?

** Best Director **  

David Fincher (Social Network)

I don't think we'll have a repeat of 2006. Best Picture and Best Director will go hand-in-hand this year. I see a disapointing night for Aronofsky, which is a shame considering he should've been nominated for The Wrestler last year. 

** Actor in a Leading Role ** 

Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

A really tough category so it's hard to gauge. Certainly, Jeff Bridges will be praying that, after 5 previous nominations, this will be his night, but I can't see it. While Javier Bardem will be be hoping to up his supporting win (2007) to a lead win, again don't think so. It would be interesting to see James Franco pick up the award in the midst of presenting, but again I don't see it happening. Go Bertie!

** Actor in a Supporting Role **

Christian Bale (The Fighter)

I haven't actually seen The Fighter, but gauging media coverage and clips I've seen of Bale as as skinny crack addict, I think it'll be his night.  He didn't get a nomination for American Psycho (2000) or The Machinist (2004), in both of which he gave  incredible performances, so I'd like to see him win (even though he's a right dick).

** Actress in a Leading Role ** 

Annette Benning (The Kid's are Alright)

For me it's a weak category. In want Michelle Williams to win but I doubt it'll happen. As long as Portman or Kidman lose out I'll be happy; over-hyped (Black Swan) and overrated (Rabbit Hole). 

** Actress in a Supporting Role ** 

Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Stronger than the lead category, I'd say! My guess is that where 'newbies' Eisenberg and Lawrence lose out, young Steinfeld will rein victorious. I'd like to see Helena Botham-Carter or Jacki Weaver take it but if the youngster scoops it - as I predict - then smiles all round. 

** Foreign Language Film ** 

Biutiful 

I've only saw two of the nominations but I'd bet my last dollar that Iñárritu's hard-hitting drama goes home with this trophy.

** Writing (Adapted Screenplay)**  

127 hours 

Here's hoping 127 hours picks up something. I truly loved this film and if it hadn't been for such an amazing year in film then it surely would've had a night of glory after glory. It could pick up the editing prize, and I'm shocked to hell it wasn't a nominee in cinematography. 

** Writing (Original Screenplay) ** 

The King's Speech 

Although I'd love to see Mike Leigh scoop it for Another Year, I'm doubtful. 

Feel free to comment on my predictions below - call me an idiot, a prophet, a filmic fool. Or offer your own predictions. Enjoy the show, tune in at 11.30pm on Sky HD Living. For now, I'm off to see Tiny Furniture and The Eagle (if I can sneak into a full-house!).